I’ve seen too many articles “reminding” me to go bet NBA futures for 2021. The books want the futures handle so badly, and it’s certainly obvious why this is the case.
In reality, a true pro bettor never places a season-long future bet and neither should you…
Read this POST to find out why:
1- Future markets have a high hold % for the book, meaning you likely do not have a big edge. But even if you do… If betting a season long future, you need to factor in the date the bet will settle. If the bet settles in 1 year, you are giving the book an interest free loan. Lets look at the time value of money principle. The average person can expect to earn ~5% /yr through investing their money. The future bet doesn’t pay you interest. So if the bet ties up my money for 1 year, then your edge has to be bigger than the 5% you could earn elsewhere.
2- Money tied up in a pending future cannot be put in play today. Bankroll management is extremely important for professionals. If I have a similar edge on a daily basis, then continually putting that money in play daily will provide me a higher ROI than a year long future bet. Many people grasp this concept and opt to bet futures exclusively at books that offer credit. This way, you don’t tie up money & you don’t have to worry about opportunity cost.
In reality, placing a future bet at a credit book is actually worse for true professionals. Here’s why:
3- Credit is extremely important. Pro bettors are continually looking for new places to bet and the more credit you have, the more you can bet, & the more you can win. Having a credit account is a gift for any pro bettor. Don’t waste your credit on a season long future.
4- If you have an account & you earn money betting into the account; it is only a matter of time until you are cut off. This is what happens to a successful bettor. When this happens it doesn’t end well. I have seen many bookies cancel future bets that are going to win, but leave losers active, essentially free rolling you.
5- In today’s day and age, it is increasingly likely that a season is postponed, delayed or cancelled. House rules vary and are often altered / enforced without notice. In other words. who knows what is going to happen with these seasons and who knows what rules the books will enforce.
Note: I am referring to season long future bets such as the Super Bowl Winner, Season Win Totals, or Divisional Futures. I am not referring to short term future bets such as betting on who will win the Masters on the Tuesday before the tournament. These settle quickly. This thread is intended to help bettors who attempt to make money betting sports…. If you are just looking to have fun, placing a future bet on your favourite team, or hitting a long shot champion can be very entertaining & the fun you have may outweigh the -EV on the bet made… GO NUTS!!
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Thanks for reading!