Continuing the great work of u/blackjack_counter
Our methodology for playing 6-point teasers is similar to Blackjack expert Stanford Wong’s strategy:
Tease the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, +2½, or +3
Tease the favorite when the line is -7½, -8, -8½, or -9.
The reasoning behind this methodology is that games are frequently decided by a final margin of 3, 6, or 7. So we play teasers in such a manner that we gain these numbers in the teaser movement.
In the week 1 post, u/blackjack_counter did a mathematical dive into whether we should be playing games at exactly +3, whether home teams are more reliable than road teams, and whether the total of the game matters.
10-point teasers are often called “sweetheart” teasers. Over the past three years, underdogs of +1½, +2, +2½ were 69-10 (87.3%). It’s not a very large sample size, but it might be worth keeping an eye on. After looking at a small sample size in 2017-2019, I’ve decided to track 10-point teasers according to the following methodology:
For 10-point teasers, tease the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, or +2½;
Do not take sweetheart teasers at +3;
Do not take sweetheart teasers on favorites.
The plays last week were:
|Off-the-board spread||6 pt||10 pt|
Based on the closing line at Bovada to determine which games qualify as Wong bets. Since u/blackjack_counter used Bovada’s closing lines, I will continue to use it. You can verify these lines at sbrodds.com.
Assuming a -120 payout for 2-team teasers, we must demonstrate better than 73.9% probability on each leg to show we have breakeven-or-better EV. For a -130 payout on 3-team sweethearts, that threshold is 82.7%. Including last week, the results since 2017 are listed below.
|6 pt||2017||+1½ thru +3||61-23|
|6 pt||2018||+1½ thru +3||63-19|
|6 pt||2019||+1½ thru +3||52-16|
|6 pt||2020||+1½ thru +3||19-2|
|6 pt||2017||-7½ thru -9||27-10|
|6 pt||2018||-7½ thru -9||16-9|
|6 pt||2019||-7½ thru -9||17-7|
|6 pt||2020||-7½ thru -9||11-3|
|10 pt||2017||+1½ thru +2½||22-1|
|10 pt||2018||+1½ thru +2½||24-5|
|10 pt||2019||+1½ thru +2½||23-4|
|10 pt||2020||+1½ thru +2½||5-0|
For the purposes of tracking the results, I remain steadfast in using Bovada’s closing line.
As of now, the unofficial list of Wong teasers this week is:
New Orleans -7.5
San Francisco +2.5
L.A. Chargers -7.5