NCAAF Daily Discussion – 10/17/20 (Saturday)

9-14 -5.19u this week isn’t off to a disastrous start for a change

Navy -3 vs. ECU (-110) Navy got destroyed twice and has two wins over Tulane/Temple who I would consider better teams than ECU. Think ECU’s defense will wear down too much here, they are 119th in SP+ and allowed 6.4 yards per play. Depends on which Navy shows up but I have enough trust in them as a program to win against bad teams like this.

South Florida vs. Temple under 53 (-115) By SP+ we have USF at 118th in offense and 57th in D, Temple is 100th offense/75th defense. USF is particularly awful at QB and only got 24 points against that horrendous ECU defense. Expecting a really sloppy game from both offenses.

Texas St vs. South Alabama over 58 (-110) Not good defenses allowing over 30 ppg here. Only 1 Texas State game gone over but they’ve put up big points on the 2 bad defenses they’ve played and sounds like they’ll give more snaps to backup QB Tyler Vitt who has been far more effective. South Alabama has some big play WRs that can score quickly and is at a decent 5.9 yards per play.

Ole Miss -1.5 vs. Arkansas (-115) Expecting another hard fought game for Arkansas where they fall just short by a field goal+, this Ole Miss offense is legit and just think Arkansas’ offense won’t be able to keep up on a couple drives

WKU +13.5 vs. UAB (-110) done with WKU forever if they get destroyed again, but with the total at 44.5 and UAB’s offense ranking 110th in SP+ and running a slow pace, just seems like a lot to open up a 2 TD lead

Boston College +12.5 vs. Virginia Tech (-110) I don’t think BC looks that bad, decent offense at 37th in SP+, QB looks good. Virginia Tech should get some players back but I don’t really trust that coaching staff, BC can hang within 10 points

Alabama vs. Georgia over 58 (-110) this is probably the best defense Alabama will play at least regular season but I still gotta do it, Alabama’s offense looks like it can put points up on anyone but the defense has problems. Wasn’t sure about UGA’s QB play heading into the year but Stetson Bennett IV looks good enough

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