Dodgers (Urias) vs Braves (Wright) Game 3 Picks and Odds – Oct. 14

Freddie Freeman crushing a baseball

Freddie Freeman went 2-for-4 with a home run and three RBI in Game 2 of the ALDS. Image from @ESPNStatsInfo (Twitter).
  • The Braves survived a nervous ninth to take a 2-0 lead over the Dodgers in the NLCS
  • Kyle Wright will start Game 3 for Atlanta while Julio Urias goes for LA
  • Game 3 takes place Wednesday, October 14th, at Globe Life Field (6:05 pm ET)

The Los Angeles Dodgers were dealt a difficult blow hours before Game 2 when it was announced that Clayton Kershaw would be sidelined by back spasms.

While replacement Tony Gonsolin cruised through the first three innings, he gave up a two-run shot to Freddie Freeman in the fourth. Then he gave up two walks and a double to start the fifth, surrendering five earned runs total.

Trailing 7-0 at one point, the Dodger bats finally woke up, but Atlanta was able to avoid disaster and hold on for the 8-7 win and a 2-0 lead in the best-of-seven NLCS. Now LA is in must-win territory.

Game 3 goes Wednesday, October 14th, at 6:05 pm ET from Globe Life Field.

Dodgers vs Braves Odds – Game 3

Team Moneyline Runline Total
Los Angeles Dodgers (J. Urias) -170 -1.5 (-110) Over 9.5 (-105)
Atlanta Braves (M. Wright) +155` +1.5 (-110) Under 9.5 (-115)

Odds as of Oct 13th from Caesars

Despite the Braves sporting a perfect 7-0 postseason record, LA is still favored when it comes to the Game 3 Dodgers vs Braves odds.

When it was announced that Gonsolin was starting in place of Kershaw, the total moved by a full run. Following a late charge from LA on Tuesday night, it’s been bumped up once again.

Through 15 Innings, Dodgers Offense Was MIA

Until Corey Seager crushed a three-run homer in the seventh inning on Tuesday, LA’s offense didn’t look very Dodger-like through two games.

In fact, it was downright quiet. Then they scored seven runs in the final three innings of Game 2.

Dodgers Key Bats Through Two Games

Player H/AB HR RBI Runs K LOB
Mookie Betts 1/7 0 0 1 2 4
Corey Seager 3/8 1 4 2 4 2
Max Muncy 1/6 1 2 1 3 0
Cody Bellinger 1/9 0 1 0 3 1
Justin Turner 2/9 0 0 0 2 4

One of the keys mentioned in the Game 2 preview was whether the Dodgers could max out Ian Anderson’s pitch count. They were able to put their plan into action, making Anderson throw 85 pitches through four innings.

Despite putting two on in the first and loading the bases in the third, LA still came away with nothing. But their sudden surge late in Game 2 could be a sign of things to come.

2020 World Series Odds Tracker

Braves Rotation Depth to Be Tested

In their Wild Card Series against the Reds, Atlanta only needed Anderson and Max Fried. So Wright didn’t start until Game 3 against the Marlins, when he struck out seven over six shutout innings.

While that start in the NLDS paints one picture, Wright’s regular-season results were drastically different.

Kyle Wright vs Julio Urias: 2020 Comparison

8 Starts 10
2-4 Record 3-0
5.21 ERA 3.27
4.8 Innings Per Start 4.9
30 Strikeouts 45
24 Walks 18
1.553 WHIP 1.145
5.90 FIP 3.72

If the Dodgers are going to get back into the series, this is the game to do it.

Before the playoffs, Wright had given up three or more runs in five of his eight starts. In his first four starts of the season, he walked at least three batters. Of the 35 hits he gave up during the regular season, 13 were for extra bases.

It’s fair to wonder which Wright will show up on Wednesday: the one who struggled over his first six starts, or the one who’s been excellent through his last three .

Dodger starter Julio Urias has always had an excellent pedigree and, after functioning as a long man out of the bullpen last year, he impressed in his return to the rotation. If there’s one issue, it’s how deep he’ll be able to get into the game.

He threw more than six innings just once in 2020, going 6.1 against the Padres. His pitch count only exceeded 90 twice, so it will be interesting to see what Dave Roberts does. LA has used ten different relievers in two games.

Braves Eye 3-0 NLCS Lead

The Braves look red-hot right now, and hard to bet against. But the pitching match-up favors the Dodgers, and LA has yet to lose three in a row this season.

The Dodgers can’t afford a slow start to Game 3, because it likely won’t just cost them the game, but the series as well.

The Pick: Dodgers (-170), Over 9.5 (-105)

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