Player Prop Picks
Aaron Rodgers: UNDER 0.5 interceptions thrown vs Bucs (-200)
Since the 2011-12 season, Aaron Rodgers has a 12-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio at home in the postseason; in his entire career, he has a 14-1 ratio at Lambeau Field in the playoffs. Even though the Buccaneers recorded two interceptions in their first matchup this season (Week 5), that game was in Tampa Bay and is the outlier in terms of Rodgers’ performance this season.
Rodgers thrives in the frigid conditions of Green Bay– something Tampa’s defense isn’t used to (they haven’t played a cold weather game yet this year). He’s thrown 23 touchdowns and just two picks at home this season while posting a 122.4 passer rating and a 7-1 record. With another Super Bowl on the line and with the boost of a home crowd (albeit, reduced), this is a prime opportunity for Aaron Rodgers to post a career-defining game.
Stefon Diggs: OVER 93.5 receiving yards vs Chiefs (-112)
Since Week 8, Stefon Diggs has broken 90 yards in nine of 11 outings, 100 yards six times, and 115 yards five times. Bottom line: he’s a yardage machine. A week ago, the Chiefs struggled to slow down speedster Rashard Higgins of the Browns, giving up 88 yards to him and nearly a touchdown. With both an upgrade at quarterback (Baker Mayfield to Josh Allen) and receiver (Higgins to Diggs), it’s safe to assume that the KC secondary is going to give up some yardage.
The other factor into betting this prop is the likelihood of this game being a high-scoring shootout. The over/under on the ballgame is a modest 54, but could climb much higher should Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen begin to trade punches. Both offenses have the explosive potential to take the top off a defense and score in the bunches. Even if the scoring is under control, Diggs will get his lion’s share; the last four times a Bills’ game failed to reach 54 points, Diggs still hauled in at least 100 yards.