- Will Teddy Bridgewater fill the Saints with regret in his return to the Big Easy?
- In what underwhelming fashion will the Bears get a win this week?
- Last week’s picks were a winning 1-1, adding 1.96 units to our wallet. Now we’re back up to +7.81
Not only did the Niners win last week, but the Bengals jumped out to an early lead and provided a huge window to hedge. Honestly, sometimes I’m stunned that we just give out these picks for free. Then, I look around my apartment and realize that most of my furniture was given to me for free. I guess you can get a lot of cool stuff without exchanging currency.
As for Week 7 in the NFL, I don’t know that I’ll be putting that much money down on this week: there’s not a lot of enticing underdogs on this slate. But we’ve found a couple plays that are worth giving a go.
Week 7 Upset Picks
|Carolina Panthers vs New Orleans Saints||NO – 7||+250||Panthers||1|
|Chicago Bears vs Los Angeles Rams||LAR -6||+225||Bears||1|
Odds taken Oct. 24th from DraftKings and FanDuel
Teddy’s Revenge Tour Sinks Saints
A defense that doesn’t allow big plays is taking on a QB that refuses to push the ball downfield. Any other year, that would probably describe the Saints D playing against Teddy Bridgewater, but not in wacky old 2020!
Teddy Two Gloves is a 7-point underdog in his first game against the franchise that restarted his career. And while he’s by no means a deep ball artist now, his 6.9 average intended air yards dwarfs his former teammate Drew Brees, who sits bottom of the league at 6.1.
Drew Brees throwing a deep ball in 2020 pic.twitter.com/MlLhWYWu6h
— Barstool Sports (@barstoolsports) September 22, 2020
Meanwhile, the Panthers defense is allowing the fifth fewest explosive passing plays in the league, so it will truly be a masterclass in dinking and dunking for the Saints offense on Sunday. They’ll also be dinking without their top two receivers. Get ready for a busy afternoon Alvin Kamara!
Saints’ WR Michael Thomas officially ruled out on Sunday vs. Panthers. No Thomas, no Emmanuel Sanders.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) October 23, 2020
On the other side, Joe Brady (another revenge game!) has Bridgewater and this offense rounding into form. Even with a hiccup against a great Bears defense, the Panthers still rank seventh in the league in pass yards per attempt and 11th in passing DVOA.
Defensively, New Orleans has been suspect. While they’ve graded well in DVOA, they always have a few coverage breakdowns that cost them, which helps explain why they rank 24th in points allowed. Despite a ton of names across their depth chart, the whole has been worse than the sum of its parts.
Patrick Robinson gifts Mike Williams and the Chargers the go-ahead TD ?pic.twitter.com/fI0YjO2H0k
— PFF (@PFF) October 13, 2020
The Panthers’ speed should show out on the fast track of the Superdome. Look for them to put the rest of the NFC South on notice here.
No One Knows How, But The Bears Keep Rolling
This isn’t my favorite pick of the year by any means, but the Bears shouldn’t be 6-point underdogs in this spot, so I’m going to thank bookmakers for the extra value and assume Chicago will pull out another win on Monday Night.
And why wouldn’t that happen? The Bears defense is playing well enough to single-handedly win them games, even as scoring is going through the roof across the NFL.
#Bears defense has allowed just 1 touchdown in each of last 3 games. Since Colts scored TD on first drive Oct. 4, Bears have held Colts, Buccaneers and Panthers to 2 TDs on 32 possessions.
— Larry Mayer (@LarryMayer) October 19, 2020
Chicago is allowing touchdowns on just 36.36% of opponents trips into the red zone. The Rams’ offense ranks 20th in red zone scoring, meaning LA may need to depend on the shaky leg of rookie kicker Samuel Sloman to put up points.
Defensively, the Rams match up well in this one, as Aaron Donald should have a field day against backup guard Rashaad Coward. Granted, it doesn’t take much to stop the Bears offense for long stretches in a game: they typically only show up for one quarter each game.
With this Foles TD, the Bears are no longer the only team in the NFL with 0 points in the 3rd Quarter this season. pic.twitter.com/PooTifRNfz
— Barstool Sabermetrics (@sabermetrics) October 18, 2020
Despite ranking near the bottom of the league in just about every offensive metric, Nick Foles somehow does enough each week to give the Bears D a chance to close things out. Foles’ magic is especially strong in primetime, where he’s won his last eight starts.
The Rams still haven’t beaten a team outside the NFC East, so it’s unclear if they’re actually a threat this season. What is clear is that this line is three points too high. Back a Bears team that is 4-1 SU as an underdog this year. It doesn’t matter how pretty it is, all that matters is Chicago keeps winning.